Day 5 Probabilities & Trajectories of the Trump Presidency

I doubt Trump supporters have or will draw a line by which to determine if he fails to live up to his promises to them. He made a lot. Perhaps many don’t expect any deliveries; perhaps the only motivation for Trump supporters was to make sure Clinton did not win. So check that off the list, based on a technicality many don’t understand. 

Trump swore to throw out Obamacare. Seems like he’ll keep most of it. Trump said he’d drain the swamp of Washington and instead did the opposite and appointed longtime Republican politicians to take up posts. Since I don’t see Trump supporters in the streets, they must be ‘okay’ with that. Great!

On the other side of the aisle, I have heard whispers of optimism from some Clinton supporters; some is holding water, and some leaking at other points. Particularly what is coming true is what Clinton supporters read into Trump’s demeanor: his mission of hatred. This is less about his words since election but expressed in whom he is appointing to office. This is about judging character and presuming all the policies that correlate with it. It’s conjectural, but I think it will come into play in social reforms and civil society more than the promises of a wall or “rescuing” the economy. Granted, he did state on 60 minutes that he did not condone attacks against minorities. So maybe there’s a chance?

The danger of the Trump campaign is that it attacks social welfare and the civil rights that Democrats have been fighting for, as well potentially damaging foreign relations that have been built on diplomacy over the last 8 years. Some are reversible, others aren’t. I anticipate there will be a greater impact on the social level and civil society than other aspects that worry Clinton supporters. Trump’s encounter with politics will be deference to people he likes who have some experience and motivation to change their condition. He won’t admit that he has basically no fucking idea about politics, presidential budgets, the economy, or foreign affairs. I don’t blame him, he’s not a  politician. He’s a business man. But politics rule over business, the economy influences businessin some ways. (Business’s influence on politics isn’t necessarily true but and when it occurs it’s corrupt. This is the single message Trump aimed at Clinton and frankly even Clinton supporters aren’t comfortable with that relation…maybe it got lost in the email scandal.) 

The parts of optimism that are leaking are seen in whom he is appointing to office. Stephen Bannon is an anti-Semite. This is serious. Reince Preibus is the RNC chair, so of course he’ll aim at all the vulnerable civil rights that Republicans dislike: prochoice, gun control, gay rights, etc. Paul Ryan mentioned a softer stance on deportation of undocumented immigrants. 

Two last things:

One: we must accept in this post-election season that nobody apologizes for his/her vote. If you’re old enough to remember George W. Bush fucking up Iraq with the supposed weapons of mass destruction, you’ll remember that exactly zero people said, “Oh, I guess my candidate isn’t the right person for the Presidency,” instead many re-elected him. And It wasn’t until mobilizing a disenfranchised demographic that the country got a new party, renewed economy and some semblance of regard for jurisprudence. The best that anyone can hope for in asking for redemption in this messed up reality television show that is the United States, January 21, 2017-January 21, 2021 is, “Man, maybe I should get more active in the community.” This should come from all sides (even the apathetic). I’ve heard a few people say this and it’s music to my ears. 

So if you’re holding your breath for a Trump supporter to say, “Geeze, why didn’t he drain the swamp,” you’ll pass out. It’s not going to happen. Maybe the mandatory aspects of the Affordable Healthcare Act will be thrown out, but I expect much will be kept. Trump has already stated this. No one is going to say, “You know, I gave him a change in 2016 and he really didn’t live up to my expectations, so I’m going Democrat.” Not going to happen. His supporters will give him a second term.  

So I encourage you to enjoy a few moments of shock and irony as you see some friends of yours who supported Trump and whom you anticipate to be on the short end of his stick. For me, a very nice guy I met at a co-working space has become vehemently vocal about his support for Trump and his hatred toward women. I’m surprised. He’s also Black. I asked him what he thought about the KKK celebration parade and he scuffed it off, saying they didn’t have power here. Ok. Right. Hopefully not. But as Trump appoints more bigots, like Stephen Bannon, I anticipate my friend will suffer from that. But prodding this friend of mine will likely just make him more staid in his ways, because that’s the stubborn disposition he has. (I couldn’t help thinking of the Dave Chapelle blind KKK member skit). 

Lastly, take solace in knowing people do make the wrong decisions, and they do so in democracy also. There’s been this wave of people saying, “You can’t call them stupid or ignorant for voting for Trump.” Their point is that it’s counter productive. I agree with that. But there is room to simply say, “You made the wrong decision.” Of course they won’t agree with you, but look, historically democratic processes have resulted in what most people believe were bad candidates. You don’t have to go to the extreme of Hitler to see this. People make bad decisions all the time–all day! Of course they can vote poorly. It’s not anti-democratic to say someone voting poorly. If you’re in a pizza parlor and your group of friends ask what type of pizza you should build and you think all the toppings from their icecream buffet should go on the pizza, well, you’ve just made a bad decision. And Pizza Hut: Please don’t make an icecream buffet pizza.  

Day 4 Blame Game

Get All Your Blame in One Place! 

Perhaps the impulse to find blame is coping with trauma; perhaps is a sense of solidarity for those who can’t find fellows to protest with; ideally it’s a lesson we can apply in the future, something to learn from. The smoke is clearing and it seems we are beginning to move toward constructive planning and a course of action in how to deal with the President-elect. So, just to recap what’s been discussed in the last days, I put together a list of all the paper scapegoats that have walked out on stage for a moment of projecting collective despair. 

The first blame I heard was Black voters weren’t turning out. This was based on the fact that counties were Obama overwhelming won, Clinton lost. I’m not convinced. Urban areas tend to have higher African American populations and they overwhelming voted for Clinton. Also, there are anomalous Black voters who even voted for Trump. The rationale was something like Bill Clinton’s Presidential Three Strikes You’re Out disproportionately incarcerated Black men, broke up families, and the lackluster support for Hillary gave us Trump. More recently, I would expect the first debate when the question of the national police crisis was put forward, Hillary barely touched on the fact of institutional racism THAT EVEN THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT HAS ALREADY UNCOVERED in police departments…not to mention the myriad of studies facts and you know, the video every week that shows police officers shooting Black men. But both she and Trump very quickly transitioned to talking about the need for mental healthcare. Uh, wait. Didn’t that sound strangely similar to blaming a rape victim for her outfit? I digress. But yeah, usually society blames the Black guy first, so in keeping with historical precedence, Clinton fans started blaming Black Americans for Trump. Again, I’m not convinced. 

The next target I heard was “the rest of the country,” i.e. that Clinton supporters lived in a liberal bubble–you know, a bubble of 40 million Californians, 8 million New Yorkers, 5 million Seattlites, 3 milllion Portlanders, 6 million Chicagoans, 1 milllion Austinians…a 62 million person bubble, plus most other large cities…But as we can see from the protests around the country, many people did not vote Trump in many parts of the country. And as the votes keep coming in we see that a growing majority voted for Hillary. So again, I’m not convinced. 

Another scapegoat was the 50% voter turnout. Okay, who was that? Obviously people who felt their voted didn’t matter or they didn’t like either candidate, equally. Maybe they didn’t have any cause that echoed with them, any policy the candidate proposed. Well, let’s say everyone had turned out–the lukewarm people–there’s no telling how minuscule a difference they would have made either direction, that’s why they were lukewarm; maybe they would have split 50/50 or maybe they would have slightly favored one candidate; it could have been better for Trump. As a counterfactual, this explanation doesn’t make use of time or thought, but it does go toward another scapegoat about how in touch each party is with the American people. I’ll get to that.

Another target were the polls. Data journalism failed to accurately project the winner, which caused people to not understand the closeness of the race. Again, from the previous point: if people had been compelled by a cause or a candidate, they would have voted regardless of the level of competition. Another version of this is that people secretly supported Trump but didn’t express their opinion either to polls or in public due to one or many phantoms: what’s politically correct to support and/or believe; what’s least confrontational, i.e. the person who just wants their milk and doesn’t want to debate politics in a grocery store line. What I don’t understand about this variation of voter data is that the appeal of Trump–who is a loud mouth, non-PC, repeating record–doesn’t explain why his supporters would refrain from acting similarly? Is the suggestion that these individuals lionize Trump for overcoming the PC burden that they feel so oppressed by in society? Maybe some. But what’s more interesting about this argument is that data journalism is a field of study that provides statistical projects. These are pseudo scientific claims, but still aim for concrete, hard data. Ironically, Trump supporters have not been persuaded by either data or science. Clinton supporters, like her campaign, were motivated and assured by data. It appeals to them. The obstacle becomes two fold. Firstly, how can an emerging field of study like data science, infiltrate communities that aren’t swayed by data toward the more accurate prediction? Secondly, how can those assured of data be more suspicious and conspiratorial to avoid future trauma? It’s a discipline in crisis. And in a world moving toward Big Data (at least in the urban areas) how will this evolve?

I’ve heard the Bernie card. The problem with supposing Bernie would have won is that the projections that showed him as a sure winner were created by the same data journalism discipline that inaccurately expected Clinton’s win. Why should we believe them in retrospect? I guess some people still feel the Bern?

I heard the Democratic Party is to blame for having a flawed candidate or not aligning with its supporting voting members. This is a variation on the Bernie card but with a slight Trumpian twist: the system is rigged. “The Democrats are political elitists out of touch with Americans and for that reason they failed.” I’m not sure about that. Garnering support is one thing; turning out to vote is another, votes being counted is another. One scion to this argument is to refer to the point of closeness of the race. If people were supporting but thought it was a tight race, they’d turn out to vote, so they must have not supported, therefore the Democratic Party failed to garner support. Well, the Republican Party not only failed to garner support, many of their officials didn’t even vote for Trump. “But the Republicans won,” you say, “even in maintaining the House.” Still, almost 50% of Americans didn’t vote. The reason is likely multifaceted. I’m not sure people know what they want, and/or whether a better candidate would change a personality trait in which an individual lives in a country, operates every day with the assumption of being free to do certain things but then can’t connect the importance of choosing another individual who will create laws that will impact their daily life. This is rather abstract, but I’m basically talking about democratic states. What’s nearer to this question than the idea of a single party failing (when really both failed) is that urbanites are subjected more strongly and directly to laws governing you and the person two inches from you on the sidewalk while ruralites benefit more strongly from rights because the sphere of influence of the right extends until it encounters another individual’s rights and due to less dense populations this can be a larger sphere. In my model, which party is for the suburbanite? It seems the Republicans at the moment. 

Another explanation is voters simply voted for change. Clinton was an extension of Obama and they voted against the continued program. The reason that this argument fails is that 11 Presidents have served two terms, so why didn’t people vote to change them? The ad hoc argument here would be that people re-elect an incumbent because they are familiar and have recognition advantage. Well, 13 served only one term, so that argument fails. You get the picture. Sometimes people vote for change, sometimes they vote for the familiar, sometimes one term sometimes three (FDR).

Then there’s the electoral college. Basically, each state has at least three electoral representatives despite populations that don’t reflect that in the House of Representatives. Secondly, most states have a winner-takes-all system, so 51% of the voters determine how the other 49% of voters are forced to vote. This is the most clearcut scapegoat because it undermines a core belief that American have for America: that it’s democratic. That is, each citizen gets one vote and that vote is echoed in the government. Ironically, this was Trump’s campaign from the beginning: that the system was rigged. So as Clinton and the Democratic party faced lost they adapted Trump’s campaign but with a clearer objective: to unrig the (electoral college) system.

The last scapegoat, and one I’m proposing is simply this: people made the wrong decision. I’m not saying if you voted for Trump you’re stupid. You’re not. I’m not saying if you voted for a Republican you’re a racist. What I’m saying is if you voted against something, you used your vote incorrectly. A vote is not a weapon, it’s an endorsement. When you vote you are saying, “This is what I support,” not “This is what I’m against.” Trump took advantage of this misinterpretation of democracy. His campaign was contrarian. That was his whole point. He was against EVERYTHING. And if you were against anything, you defaulted for him. This argument is similar to people voting for change, but I’m adding a twist. Here it is simply: don’t be a hater. That’s it. Don’t shit on someone’s parade when you’re voting. 

Inherent in my argument is a critique of democracy, but I’m not proposing a dictatorship, I’m not proposing another form of government, I’m proposing a better form of democracy. This is the point. Rather than saying, “I want anything other than X,” how can democracy be position so that the only way to vote is like “I want Y.” The former statement is vague. Anything other than one thing you’re against. You really have no idea what you’re going to get other than not X. The latter statement is specific. You want one thing and if you don’t get other things, that’s okay. The one thing you want is the one thing you’re aiming for. 

For me, the most frustrating aspect of blame is how Trump has, throughout his campaign, evaded it. He just does not accept wrongdoing. This is a personality disorder. The short satisfaction we pursue in punishment and potentially punishing Trump now seems basically impossible. I’m talking about legal punishment for his not paying taxes, I’m talking about his legal punishment for sexual harassment, I’m talking about his ethical punishment inciting hatred, violence and undoing civil society in the name of “economics.” Americans, relish punishment. We call it ‘justice’ most of the time. 

Please share your ideas about whom to blame for this disaster

Day 3 After the Misogynist's Election

Before the chaos of his cabinet gets going too far, it’s necessary to reflect on the meaning of the 2016 Presidential election outcome. In contrast to the plethora of scapegoating as to why he got elected that is occurring within much of the media, I want to unpack what it means. Specifically, it’s necessary to talk about misogyny because as I’ll argue below, the disguising and dismissing of it is exactly why it persists. As a model for other persevering types of hatred, this argument is applicable to racism, xenophobia, anti-Semitism, et al. And because the presidential outcome is already off to a good start with protests, riots, concerns for whom to blame, how to get Democrats back on track, the missed misogyny may be too easily sidelined.

Implicit in the feeling of devastation of young voters who supported Clinton is the meaning of the election for them. The primary topic is the various forms of hatred the President-elect embraces, specifically misogyny and racism. Misogyny is evidenced in Trump’s recorded conversation about the power he has due to his wealth, which results in women allowing him to grab their genitals without their permission. In addition to that statement, there are a number of women who are filing sexual harassment suits against him. On one hand what he so crudely stated was something that, as a society we mostly already knew, i.e. that litigation against the wealthy is (increasingly) unbalanced, mostly due to the financial burden of bringing a lawsuit in the first place. That is, wealthy, powerful men can sexually harass women, even though it’s against the law. But on the other hand the misogynistic element of his statement and how it functions is two fold: firstly, there is the overt misogyny that he is propounding–the action or statement–but secondly–and this is the insidious nature of hatred more generally–there is his supporters who choose an explanatory narrative which takes his statement outside of the realm of misogyny and illegality. His supporters, many whom are women, created or accepted ad hoc explanations as to why they wouldn’t interpret what he said as misogyny. Specifically, Trump invented the explanation that it was, “Locker room talk,” which is a version of “boys will be boys” but for grown up men. Rationally, there are a number of problems with his and his supporters’ perspective, but the most readily available is simply ‘delusion.’ I mean delusion in the most simplistic sense: that events or characteristics are repeatedly viewed from a single scope. There is no positive here or negative to weigh, there is no variable to consider, there simply a single constant. There are no anomalies, no aberrations, no deviations. In an analogy with buying a classic car the importance of the car as part of a collection or object owned outweighs the fact that parts may not be available, that it could be difficult to maintain, or that it doesn’t really function like vehicle intended for transportation but rather a big toy that may move around.  

The sexual harassment suits are intended to remove the theoretical aspect of Trump’s statement and root it in fact. They are intended to undo the ad hoc explanation of “locker room talk.” The quantity (the last count was at 12) of suits is intended to make his actions appear not only habitual, but enforce the verity of each plaintiff’s claim. The difficult I can foresee in each of these cases is not only the ephemeral nature  of proof in a crime that may have manifested in touching, speaking or writing but linking that proof–which may only be a statement or message written–with the criminal intention. Coincidentally, this is the same difficulty in prosecuting for hate crimes, which Trump supporters who attack immigrants or Muslims should face. For Trump, it will be doubly difficult to prosecute because of another truth that exists in our society: people in position of political power are often immune to litigation. 

In the next post I will write about Donald Trump’s first day as President agenda.

Day 2 Trump America

Day 1 was too depressing to write anything. Focusing on a singular thought other than, “how is this reality possible,” was simply not possible. I spoke with almost no one. The subway was very quiet. I joined a protest in Union square in the evening and found the solidarity a sentiment profound to a level that I never experienced before. Still, the conversations of the second day, November 10, seem too oblivious for me not to put to pen. The media was oscillating away from the topic of this terror, as if business as usual had resumed. The general sentiment of the New Yorkers with whom that I’ve conversed today is one of two perspectives: Native New Yorkers have a sense that Trump won’t do all the things he claims. This includes the perspective of most Americans and most mainstream media I’ve encountered. It’s the perspective that makes me feel overwhelming compelled to write down this moment. The second perspective is that of foreign New Yorkers–visitors, tourists, temporary citizens–who state that this problem is not confined only to the U.S. but that it’s part of a larger problem seen throughout Europe and the rest of the world. Succinctly the feeling is anger with the forms of governance available; feelings of anger result in violence of some kind. 

I found my own perspective worriedly pessimistic. While many Americans assured me that Trump would not do all or most of the things he claimed, I noticed the tone of their voice to be familiar; I had heard it when I was assured that he would not be a primary candidate; I heard it when I was assured that he could not be elected. I suggest otherwise. My gut feeling is not supported by data journalism but with a simple thought experiment. To the Trump opposer certain the next four years will be ‘okay’ I ask a simple question: Why wouldn’t someone assassinate him? The answer is simple: his Vice President and Republican coterie is even worse. But isn’t this Republican Congress the same mechanism that we liberals hope will regulate him? Isn’t this our last moral compass that we hope won’t go to the extreme? Donald Trump is a dangerous man and an even more dangerous politician. Not exclusively for his ideals, but for is capacity to incite violence. He is the riot waiting. For the Republicans he is the imagination of their hatred, an imagination they lacked for the last eight years. And don’t confuse my claim with the idea that he has somehow “tapped” into the American conscious or unconscious. It’s simply he’s a hateful man. His first foray into politics consisted of a full-spread advert to bring back the death penalty. This was the New York Time’s first venture into mercenary media for Trump antics. 

His capacity for violence is already validating his supporter’s anger. Across America, people are attacking minorities and Muslims. These acts which would be considered ‘hate crimes’ under Obama but are thought of as ‘patriotic’ under Trump’s reality. The last six weeks of Obama are unfortunately looking to be polite formalities rather than last minute alterations for a horrific rollercoaster ride. Trump supporters believe their anger is legitimated, that their hatred is a majority and that their power is unchecked as it aligns with their leader. Even in New York, people are telling minorities “go back to where came from” on the subway. 

We have entered a very bad era. As a person whose political consciousness awoke in the election for George W. Bush I can say that the speculation for our survival as a nation is not optimistic but unrealistic. Never have we had so many variables working against the mission of a free and prosperous society. While George W. Bush coaxed empty patriotism for a misled war for oil, Trump incites violence in situ. A Republican majority that aspires to undo internal civil society is something that can be reversed in coming elections, but combined with a demagogue with unchecked access to military power and greed is not something this global village can tolerate, should it transform into warfare. Moreover, as huts in the village become more fascist the worry is no longer a perseverance of democracy, but an actual continuance of humanity, as wars between countries can play out not as nations fighting but as ideologies, as we are seeing in the war on terror. We talking about nuclear armament in an age where you can get a flight from JFK to almost anywhere in the world, directly. An age when the aggression against people in another country who may have family living next door to us is true in most cities in the world. An age where any word spoken or movement can be surveilled accurately and easily. We are talking about warfare and civil war that will not take the form of traditional declarations and treatise, but perpetual violence and violent coverage.

On the bright side, a few mythologies about American democracy were undone this election. Big banks don’t own the results. Clinton had most of the support of big banks and failed. Latinos do turnout to vote. New York, San Francisco, Seattle and Portland are the only liberal bastions (many more cities are protesting). Minorities and Muslims are not taking over the country. No, we all voted against Trump and still lost. 

Another bright side is despite the EPA’s transitional leader, Myron Ebell of Competitive Enterprise Institute, a climate change denier, Trump may actually help the environment. I’m speculating on this based on the fact that he’ll get rid of the Affordable Healthcare Act, in which Income-based Repayment Plans for student loans (a bubble much bigger than the housing bubble) will be terminated and result in a huge cut in American’s buying power and consumption. I’ll write more on this later. And since there seems to be a faction of Americans who don’t believe that human industry and activity effects the world’s climate, let me put it in indisputable terms: how do you feel about lead poisoning? Do you think that eating lead chips is a good idea? How about for your children? Well, in the 1970s, the lead paint industry fought hard to claim that there isn’t a negative side effect of lead industries. Without regulation on industrial waste from the EPA, lead and any other byproduct get simply thrown into the environment. You don’t even have to think that climate change is real to see how fucked up it is to put this guy in charge. If you do follow the climate change science, you’ll know that Miami is already building infrastructure to deal with rising sea levels, but that won’t change Marco Rubio’s perspective.